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Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses of the storms associated with the 8 May 2017 Colorado severe hail event using either the Milbrandt and Yau (MY) or the NSSL double-moment bulk microphysics scheme in the forecast model are evaluated. With each scheme, two experiments are conducted in which the reflectivity ( Z) observations update in addition to dynamic and thermodynamic variables: 1) only the hydrometeor mixing ratios or 2) all microphysical variables. With fewer microphysical variables directly constrained by the Z observations, only updating hydrometeor mixing ratios causes the forecast error covariance structure to become unreliable, and results in larger errors in the analysis. Experiments that update all microphysical variables produce analyses with the lowest Z root-mean-square innovations; however, comparing the estimated hail size against hydrometeor classification algorithm output suggests that further constraint from observations is needed to more accurately estimate surface hail size. Ensemble correlation analyses are performed to determine the impact of hail growth assumptions in the MY and NSSL schemes on the forecast error covariance between microphysical and thermodynamic variables. In the MY scheme, Z is negatively correlated with updraft intensity because the strong updrafts produce abundant small hail aloft. The NSSL scheme predicts the growth of large hail aloft; consequently, Z is positively correlated with storm updraft intensity and hail state variables. Hail production processes are also shown to alter the background error covariance for liquid and frozen hydrometeor species. Results in this study suggest that EnKF analyses are sensitive to the choice of MP scheme (e.g., the treatment of hail growth processes).

Day-ahead (20–22 h) 3-km grid spacing convection-allowing model forecasts are performed for a severe hail event that occurred in Denver, Colorado, on 8 May 2017 using six different multimoment microphysics (MP) schemes including: the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment (MY2), Thompson (THO), NSSL double-moment (NSSL), Morrison double-moment graupel (MOR-G) and hail (MOR-H), and Predicted Particle Properties (P3) schemes. Hail size forecasts diagnosed using the Thompson hail algorithm and storm surrogates predict hail coverage. For this case hail forecasts predict the coverage of hail with a high level of skill but underpredict hail size. The storm surrogate updraft helicity predicts the coverage of severe hail with the most skill for this case. Model data are analyzed to assess the effects of microphysical treatments related to rimed ice. THO uses diagnostic equations to increase the size of graupel within the hail core. MOR-G and MOR-H predict small rimed ice aloft; excessive size sorting and increased fall speeds cause MOR-H to predict more and larger surface hail than MOR-G. The MY2 and NSSL schemes predict large, dense rimed ice particles because both schemes predict separate hail and graupel categories. The NSSL scheme predicts relatively little hail for this case; however, the hail size forecast qualitatively improves when the maximum size of both hail and graupel is considered. The single ice category P3 scheme only predicts dense hail near the surface while above the melting layer large concentrations of low-density ice dominate.

Hail forecast evaluations provide important insight into microphysical treatment of rimed ice. In this study we evaluate explicit 0–90-min EnKF-based storm-scale (500-m horizontal grid spacing) hail forecasts for a severe weather event that occurred in Oklahoma on 19 May 2013. Forecast ensembles are run using three different bulk microphysics (MP) schemes: the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment scheme (MY2), the Milbrandt–Yau triple-moment scheme (MY3), and the NSSL variable density-rimed ice double-moment scheme (NSSL). Output from a hydrometeor classification algorithm is used to verify surface hail size forecasts. All three schemes produce forecasts that predict the coverage of severe surface hail with moderate to high skill, but exhibit less skill at predicting significant severe hail coverage. A microphysical budget analysis is conducted to better understand hail growth processes in all three schemes. The NSSL scheme uses two-variable density-rimed ice categories to create large hailstones from dense, wet growth graupel particles; however, it is noted the scheme underestimates the coverage of significant severe hail. Both the MY2 and MY3 schemes produce many small hailstones aloft from unrimed, frozen raindrops; in the melting layer, hailstones become much larger than observations because of the excessive accretion of water. The results of this work highlight the importance of using a MP scheme that realistically models microphysical processes.